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By Sam Story
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
It's another exciting week in the Big Ten. This week has some terrific matchups, highlighted by a huge game Tuesday night between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Michigan State Spartans. A loss for Illinois would be devastating. Its postseason hopes have probably already been dashed, but there is still a slight chance they could sneak in. Michigan State can't afford a loss, either. Sparty is 4-3 in conference play but has a daunting task ahead of it when Ohio State comes to town on Saturday.
One thing is becoming more and more likely … the Big Ten will only feature four teams in the NCAA Tournament. As we said last week, the Big Ten averages 5.5 bids a year, so, technically, the prognosticators are right when they say "the Big Ten is down this year." We'll see come tournament time with Wisconsin, Ohio State and Indiana.
In the Big Ten this week are the following matchups:
Tuesday: Michigan State (17-5, 4-3) at Illinois (15-8, 3-5), 9 ET
MSU is starting to play some good basketball. It happens about this time of year with young teams that have potential. It helps the Spartans have the conference's best coach in Tom Izzo. The Spartans won four in a row before a two-point loss at Ohio State on Saturday night. In that game, Maurice Joseph missed a three at the horn which could have given MSU a stunning road victory. Regardless, MSU is playing well, while Illinois is coming off of a 64-47 blowout defeat at Purdue. Illinois has 5 conference losses, and a loss tonight likely would send it to the NIT. The Illini still have to travel to Indiana and Iowa. At best, Illinois finishes 10-6 in the Big Ten. It starts with a win tonight over an MSU team that is hungry and ready to hit its stride. MSU seems too tough, even on the Illini's home court. Illinois is a 3-point favorite on WagerWeb.com, however.
Wednesday: Wisconsin (21-1, 7-0) at Indiana (15-5, 5-2) 7 ET
The Badgers will head into Indiana's Assembly Hall with a nearly unblemished record -- save a loss to Missouri State in a non-conference tournament. But, Indiana should not be taken lightly, especially this year. The Hoosiers are undefeated at home and have been routing Big Ten foes in Bloomington. In every one of the Hoosiers' home Big Ten games, they have led by over 18. They beat Michigan State by 22, Purdue by 27, Iowa by 7, and recently beat Michigan by 15. Sure, Wisconsin is better than all of those teams but Indiana's home court advantage is undeniable. Look for the Hoosiers to pull off a slight upset in Bloomington.
Wednesday: Ohio State (18-3, 6-1) at Purdue (14-7, 3-4) 7 ET
On the outside, you might think this game would easily go to Ohio State. But, the Buckeyes are a completely different team on the road. They've had 5 road games with 3 losses. Granted, it was to good teams (UNC, Florida and Wisconsin). But, as a first-hand witness when OSU played at Northwestern last week, the Buckeyes play differently on the road. Greg Oden doesn't touch the ball every possession like he should. Ron Lewis and Jamar Butler take bad shots. Now, I'm not saying Purdue is good. Because time and time again the Boilermakers have proved the exact opposite. But, if Ohio State gets away from playing its true style, running and getting it to Oden, they could find themselves in a tough spot at Mackey Arena. The Boilermakers have a terrific home crowd and have a really, really good post player in Carl Landry. Will it be enough to beat the Bucks? It'll be closer than people think ... OSU by 1 or 2.
Wednesday: Minnesota (8-13, 2-5) at Northwestern (11-9, 1-6) 8 ET
This is an easy game to pick, surprisingly. Northwestern plays some good basketball at home. Just look at the Wildcats' tough home losses. They had a chance in every game down the stretch when they hosted Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State. More so, Northwestern beat Minnesota by 15 up in Minneapolis. It should be a similar margin in Evanston on Wednesday night.
Wednesday: Iowa (11-10, 3-4) at Michigan (16-6, 4-3) 8 ET
Michigan is in a tough spot. The Wolverines' NCAA Tournament hopes have been just about dashed because of their inability to win against a good team on the road. Michigan has played 7 road games. They've lost 5, and the two wins were against Northwestern and Miami (Ohio). Michigan has tons of work to do before it can even be on the radar. It'll help that it is playing a mediocre Iowa team at home. A win for Michigan is expected. A loss, and Tommy Amaker can save time and put up the "for sale" signs right now in his front yard.
Saturday: Purdue at Penn State Noon ET
Don't underestimate Penn State at home. The Nittany Lions gave Indiana a good game and are capable of scoring a lot of points, especially against a Purdue team that has tons of trouble defending. Purdue gave up 89 at Indiana State, 85 at Indiana and then gave up 71 at Michigan seven days after holding it to 53. Penn State will win this game and seal Purdue's postseason hopes.
Saturday: Northwestern at Wisconsin 2 ET
This won't be pretty. Wisconsin didn't play its best at Northwestern and still won by 6. At home, the Badgers should hit their stride much quicker. Alando Tucker was held to 2 points in the first half in Evanston. In Madison, he should come flying out of the gate. More so, look for Northwestern --- minus its game at Minnesota --- to keep its road woes intact.
Saturday: Indiana at Iowa 2 ET
It's a huge game for Indiana. The Hoosiers, led by Kelvin Sampson, invade Carver-Hawkeye Arena to take on an Iowa team coached by none other than Steve Alford. As you may remember, Alford, an Indiana graduate and former star, was passed up by Indiana Athletic Director Rick Greenspan for the vacant head coaching position in Bloomington. The game in Bloomington saw IU lead by as many as 21, but things are always different on the road. Look for Iowa to play some inspired basketball. Precisely, look for Iowa guard Adam Haluska to play much better than he did the other night against Wisconsin. In that game, Haluska was 3-18.
Saturday: Ohio State at Michigan State 4 ET
For those of you who tuned in Saturday night to watch Michigan State play at Ohio State, you saw a heck of a game. Ohio State led by as many as 20, but MSU's Drew Neitzel had a 25-point second half only to have a Maurice Joseph three clang off the rim at the buzzer to preserve a Buckeye win. The Spartans might have come up short, but redemption could very well be in store in East Lansing come Saturday afternoon. If MSU can salvage a manageable first half, then look for Neitzel & Co. to get the job done in the 2nd half. Ohio State's road record against tournament teams will remain winless.
Saturday: Minnesota at Illinois 8 ET
Illinois needs to beat somebody. And, Minnesota is the perfect recipe. The Illini should easily win this game and keep them in contention for a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. They'll have to beat out Purdue and Michigan for the 5th spot (bye), but it could very well happen. Look for the Illini to win by at least 15 here. |
