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 College Football Picks - Ball State to Cover Betting Odds: Two Mid-American Conference quarterbacks and their teams square off Tuesday night when the Broncos visit the Cardinals. Western Michigan’s Tim Hiller and Ball State's Nate Davis will try to lead their teams to unfamiliar territory — the MAC title college football picks matchup in the West Division showdown.
BALL STATE -10½ over Western Michigan Hiller has rebounded from a so-so sophomore season to produce 309 yards a game passing with 33 touchdowns while ranking second in the league in passing efficiency. The only man ahead of him is Davis, who averages 273 passing yards with 24 TDs.
The Cardinals have never reached the championship but this has been their dream season, with an unprecedented 11-0 record and the highest national ranking in school history — 15th in the Bowl Championship Series standings. Nate Davis is a junior, but with the help of running back MiQuale Lewis who has nearly 1500 yards, has made Ball State the MAC's leader in total offense and scoring.
Last week, the Cardinals got over the hump and did something the Broncos could not do earlier this season – win at Central Michigan. In fact, Western Michigan has never won THIS game, the one where there's so much at stake in the MAC standings, during coach Bill Cubit's tenure. It lost 42-7 at Northern Illinois in 2005 with a bowl bid on the line, 31-7 in 2006 at Central Michigan with the league title probably at stake and again to the Chippewas this season, 38-28, in a game that'll likely keep the Broncos from the MAC championship game.
The 2 big differences between these teams should become obvious in the college football picks matchup Tuesday night. First, Ball State has a very balanced attack, which will be needed in what could be a cold, windy, and snowy night, while Western Michigan has relied much more on QB Hiller than its running game. Secondly, the Cardinals defense has been stronger than the Broncos this season.
Western Michigan is simply in over its head here, as they are 0-9 ATS (-8.1 ppg) when not an underdog of 28+ points vs. undefeated teams not off a conference road ATS loss of 5+ points. Only twice have they been a non-Saturday dog of more than 3 points since 2005 and have been demolished in those 2 contests, losing by 30 points on average, while failing to cover the spread by 3 TDs!
Ball State has proven time and again this season that they are up to the task and they are not about to fade here. We will certainly get their best effort and focus here, as we look to play ON a power team in a “must-win” situation to qualify for a conference championship or bowl game under the right conditions.
Ultimately, the most important factor is whether the team sincerely believes they belong in the postseason. Even those teams not usually in the playoffs can be favorably affected by the specter of elimination so long as they truly believe they belong in the playoffs. The Cardinals certainly believe they belong, especially after disposing of the Chippewas last week.
Ball State is now 10-0 SU (+23.1 ppg) & 10-0 ATS (+15.2 ppg) when not favored by 25+ points vs. teams seeking revenge for a SU loss of 4+ points, and 7-0 SU (+19.6 ppg) & 7-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) this season when not favored by 17+ points.
We also note that undefeated home teams from Game 8 on with less than 6 days rest and not favored by 24+ points are 4-0 SU (+31 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+19 ppg) since at least 1980, and teams have finished strong at home in highlighted, non-Saturday games when facing a foe on a winning streak. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
In its Last Home Game, play ON a non-Saturday favorite of 1½-15½ points with less than 12 days rest vs. an opponent off 2 SU wins (not both non-Saturday).
Since 1985, these teams are 15-0 SU (+17.9 ppg) & 14-0-1 ATS (+11.4 ppg). Last week’s thumping of Miami, FL by Georgia Tech was the most recent example, and now Ball State qualifies as the next “PLAY ON” team.
Finally, our SportsDataBase research has revealed that late in the season, unbeaten teams have enjoyed the bright lights of non-Saturday games and not overlooked opponents in these highlighted games. This is confirmed by another POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 8 on, play ON a non-Saturday undefeated home team (not a favorite of 24+ points) vs. an opponent off a SU win (not an ATS loss of 9+ points).
These perfect teams have remained perfect and covered the spread in every opportunity since at least 1980, going 11-0 SU (+19.7 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+12.5 ppg).
Last week, Ball State struggled for 3 quarters before coming on strong in the 4th quarter to win at Central Michigan. With a home crowd in a frenzy here, we look for the Cardinals to jump on the Broncos early and demoralize a team that knows its going bowling even with a loss.
my system is 100% on ball st tonight this will be a great play.
We also note that undefeated home teams from Game 8 on with less than 6 days rest and not favored by 24+ points are 4-0 SU (+31 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+19 ppg) since at least 1980, and teams have finished strong at home in highlighted, non-Saturday games when facing a foe on a winning streak. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
In its Last Home Game, play ON a non-Saturday favorite of 1½-15½ points with less than 12 days rest vs. an opponent off 2 SU wins (not both non-Saturday).
Since 1985, these teams are 15-0 SU (+17.9 ppg) & 14-0-1 ATS (+11.4 ppg). Last week’s thumping of Miami, FL by Georgia Tech was the most recent example, and now Ball State qualifies as the next “PLAY ON” team.
Finally, our SportsDataBase research has revealed that late in the season, unbeaten teams have enjoyed the bright lights of non-Saturday games and not overlooked opponents in these highlighted games. This is confirmed by another POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 8 on, play ON a non-Saturday undefeated home team (not a favorite of 24+ points) vs. an opponent off a SU win (not an ATS loss of 9+ points).
These perfect teams have remained perfect and covered the spread in every opportunity since at least 1980, going 11-0 SU (+19.7 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+12.5 ppg).
Last week, Ball State struggled for 3 quarters before coming on strong in the 4th quarter to win at Central Michigan. With a home crowd in a frenzy here, we look for the Cardinals to jump on the Broncos early and demoralize a team that knows its going bowling even with a loss.
Free College Football PIck: Expect ball st to win 45-31
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