One of the most improved MLB baseball teams in 2007 should be the lovable losers from the Windy City, the Chicago Cubs.  The Cubbies have a new manager, Lou Piniella, a new huge free-agent acquisition in OF Alfonso Soriano, and a couple of important pieces added in 2B Mark DeRosa, OF Cliff Floyd and SP Ted Lilly. 

The one thing the Cubs really need this baseball season that they didn’t have a year ago is healthy players. 1B Derrek Lee, who was probably the second-best hitter in baseball in 2005, missed about three-fourths of 2006 due to injury.  Lee did play well in September of last year, so if he returns to that form the offense will be immeasurably better than it was in 2006.  The addition of Soriano to the leadoff spot adds a ton of power and speed to the lineup.  I don’t know if Soriano has another 40/40 (46 HRs and 41 SB in 2006) season in him, but he should definitely hit at least 35 HRs and have at least 30-40 steals. 

When you add Soriano and a healthy Lee to a lineup that features power-hitting 3B Aramis Ramirez (38 HRs, 119 RBI in 2006) and solid catcher Michael Barrett (.307, 16 HR in about two-thirds of a season in 2006), the team is going to score plenty of runs.  DeRosa hit almost .300 last year also, RF Jacque Jones hit 27 HRs in 2006, and a platoon of Floyd and Matt Murton should be just fine in LF. 

So, we know the Chicago Cubs are going to score plenty of runs.  The big question on this team is going to be the starting pitching.  No team has had more injury problems to their starters than the Cubs, and as a result, they brought in a couple of new guys that should take the mound 30-35 times in 2007.  The ace of the staff is Carlos Zambrano.  Zambrano is a young (26) power pitcher who has been a workhorse for about 3-4 years now.  I worry a little about his health this year because he has pitched so many innings the last few years.  He might be due for an injury.  If not, count on 17-18 wins, 200+ strikeouts, and an ERA in the low 3s for him. 

The rest of the staff is a big question mark.  Lilly has been traumatized by being in the AL East the last few years, but escaping Toronto and not having to face the Yanks and Red Sox all season should help him a lot.  The NL is a much weaker league hitting-wise, so usually pitchers who make the move from the AL to the NL do well.  The Nos.  and 4 starters will be Jason Marquis, who if nothing is an innings-eater, and Rich Hill, who has been a top prospect for a couple of years and really put together a nice second-half in 2006. Hill has the stuff to be a top starter as well, so if things come together for the Cubs, they could really have a nice staff. The fifth starter likely will be Wade Miller until Mark Prior is able to turn things around.

The Cubs’ bullpen was solid in 2006 except for the closer, Ryan Dempster.  The set-up guys like Bobby Howry, Will Ohman and Scott Eyre do a nice job getting the game from the 6th inning to the 9th, but then Dempster has problems sometimes.  Kerry Wood, who like Prior has had an incredible amount of injuries the last few years, is now a relief pitcher.  If he is proven healthy, Wood could unseat Dempster from the closing role.  The Cubs team seems to think if Wood only pitches one or two innings at a time that he can stay healthy, and since he still has nearly the incredible stuff he once did, he would be a natural fit as an intimidating closer.  It remains to be seen if he can actually stay on the field.

Here is what the opening day lineup, rotation and bullpen should look like:

Lineup:

C – Michael Barrett – Barrett was on his way to a career year in 2006 before getting a groin injury in August that ended his year.  He hit ..307 with 16 HRs in 375 AB, so he could go for over 20 HRs this year.

1B – Derrek Lee – Probably won’t be quite as great as he was in 2005 (.335 with 46 HRs), but I could see him hitting .300 with 35-40 HRs, which is still excellent production.

2B – Mark DeRosa – Hit just under .300 as a super-utility guy with Texas in 2006.  Should be close to that again now that he gets to stay put at one position in 2007.

SS – Cesar Itzuris – The Cubs are counting on him for defense, any offense is gravy.

3B – Aramis Ramirez – One of the best power-hitting 3B in the game and is at the peak of his career.  Could hit 40 HRs.

LF – Cliff Floyd/Matt Murton – Floyd hits RHPs much better than LHPs but is injury-prone.  I actually think Murton is a better hitter and he is about 10 years younger, so he could end up being the full-time guy.  This could be a nice platoon if Floyd can stay on the field.

CF – Alfonso Soriano – Has never played CF, but the Cubs didn’t sign him for his defense.  Look for another great season from him, with a possible 40/40 yet again.

RF – Jacque Jones – One of the more underrated players in the majors, he should be right around his recent averages of .280 and 25 HRs again.. 

Starters:

1.  Carlos Zambrano – Could win the NL Cy Young award with improved offensive support.  Has been rock-solid for the last few seasons.

2.  Ted Lilly – I look for a career-best season from him as he gets away from the huge bats in the AL East.

3.  Jason Marquis – Strictly an innings-eater and his recent performance is very disappointing because he does have good stuff.

4.  Rich Hill –  Has nasty stuff and seemed to harness it in the tail-end of 2006.  He could wind up being the #2 starter by the end of the season.

5.  Wade Miller/Mark Prior -- Likely to be Miller to start the season, but if Prior can somehow stay healthy and regain his stuff, watch out.

Bullpen:

Closer – Ryan Dempster/Kerry Wood – Dempster does have good stuff but iffy control.  If Wood is healthy he could take the job.

Set-up men – Bobby Howry, Scott Eyre, Neal Cotts, Will Ohman, Mike Wuertz.  One of the best group of set-up guys in the game.  Howry could be a good third option for the closing role if Dempster/Wood can’t cut it. 

One of these years the Cubs are going to put it all together, and they have the pieces to do it this year.  Health is going to be the big question mark with this club because we know the Cubs will play hard under Piniella.  I look for them to contend for the NL Central crown if all goes well. 

---